By Adam
Every draft board is an argument. Somebody thinks a player is worth the 40th pick, somebody else thinks he is worth the 80th, and the number you see as ADP is just where that argument settled on average. Most of the time our own projection lands close to where the room is drafting, which is reassuring and boring. This piece is about the places where it does not.
I pulled the current PPR ADP for 12-team leagues, read on 26 August, and put it next to our own season projection for the same players. Then I ranked both inside the position, because comparing across positions only rediscovers that quarterbacks score more points than running backs, which the draft room has known for thirty years. What is left is the honest question: among receivers, where does the market have him, and where do our numbers have him.
Ten players produce a gap big enough to change how you draft.
The five we are higher on
Wan'Dale Robinson, Tennessee. The market has him as WR39, going around pick 86. Our projection has him sixth at the position, at 230.5 points. That is the largest disagreement on the entire board, and it is not close. His ADP range tells you the room is not comfortable either: he has gone as early as 64 and as late as 109 across 714 drafts, which is a 45-pick spread on a player nobody is excited about.
Michael Wilson, Arizona. WR37 by ADP, WR8 by our numbers, 219.1 projected points, going at pick 76. I already wrote a whole piece arguing he deserves to be drafted higher than this, so I will not repeat the case here beyond noting that our model got there on its own, from the same data, without reading my article.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England. The room says RB26 and picks him at 65. We say RB10 and 223.4 points. Backs in that range are usually being priced for a committee, and our number is saying the committee is smaller than people think.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle. RB41 in rooms, going at 134. Ours is RB16 at 204.3 points. His range is the widest of anyone here, 91 to 173, which means some drafters already see this and most do not.
Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville. WR41 by market, WR17 by projection, at pick 87. He has never been the guy anyone plans a draft around, and every year he ends up on somebody's playoff roster.
Two more just off that list, if you want them: Tre Tucker in Las Vegas at WR56 against our WR33, and Parker Washington in Jacksonville at WR32 against our WR15, and Washington has been drafted 2,114 times in this sample so the market has had every chance to work him out.
The five the room likes more than we do
Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay. Rooms take him at 35 as WR18. Our projection has him WR55 at 110.2 points. That is the biggest gap in this direction, and it is a bet on a young receiver's role that our numbers are not yet willing to make.
Jaylen Waddle, Denver. WR23 at pick 46 in rooms, WR50 for us. New team, new quarterback, and a projection that is pricing the uncertainty rather than the name.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia. Going 30th overall as WR16, and our model has him WR42. A perfectly good receiver on a team with a lot of mouths, and our number is saying the target share does not survive contact with the rest of that offense.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles. WR20 by ADP at pick 38, WR46 by us.
David Montgomery, Houston. RB23 and pick 58 in rooms, RB48 for us.
Now the honest part about this half of the list, because it would be easy to dress all five up as bold calls. Two of them are not. Jonathon Brooks would have made it, at RB33 in rooms against RB63 for us, but our projection has him at 26.9 points, which is not an opinion about his talent, it is a model reading a player who may not be available. Bhayshul Tuten is close to the same story at 64.9 points. When a projection is that low the model is usually telling you about availability, not ability, and you should read it that way.
What I would actually do with this
Nothing on the "we are higher" list is a reach. That is the whole point of a gap like Robinson's: you do not have to take him at 40 to beat the market, you take him at 86 where he is already going, and if our number is right you got a top-ten receiver in the eighth round. The cost of being wrong is a mid-round pick. The cost of being right is your season.
The other list is harder, because those are all players you would be happy to roster. The disagreement there is not "avoid him", it is "do not pay the price the room is asking". If Egbuka falls two rounds past his ADP, take him and enjoy it.
And the caveat that belongs on every piece like this: this is one model against the collective judgment of thousands of drafters, and the collective judgment is right more often than any single model. Ours is built from the same public inputs everyone has, it does not know what a coach said on Tuesday, and it will be wrong about some of these ten. What it is good for is finding the places worth a second look before you spend a pick.
Every number here came from this site. ADP is the current 12-team PPR feed read 26 August, and the projections are our own, published on the rankings board and explained on the methodology page. Both move most nights, so check them again on draft day.