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How this decides
Three separate things, kept apart on purpose:
- The projection is what we expect if the player is active. It is built from usage and does not contain injury news.
- Availability is a separate overlay. Bye weeks come from the real schedule and are certain. Injury status carries its source and its age — and when we do not have it, we say unknown rather than assuming somebody is healthy.
- The recommendation combines the two, and declines to pick when the gap is inside the model's own average error. A confident answer to a coin flip is worse than no answer.