How this decides
Three separate things, kept apart on purpose:
- The projection is what we expect if the player is active. It is built from usage and does not contain injury news.
- Availability is a separate overlay. Bye weeks come from the real schedule and are certain. Injury status carries its source and its age. A player who is not on a current injury report is expected to play, because the report itself is the statement that he carries no designation. When the report we hold is more than a day and a half old, we say unknown rather than assuming somebody is healthy.
- The recommendation combines the two, and declines to pick when the gap is below the current comparison threshold. Historical comparison rates describe past results, not a guarantee for this matchup.
How the projections are built and how accurate they are.
Adam, who runs MustDraft: “The week I finished second in my work league, I benched the wrong guy on a Sunday morning hunch. This is the check I do now before lineups lock, in every league I'm in.”