How the keeper math works
Is a fourth-round keeper worth a fourth-round pick? Keeping a player in round N forfeits your real selection in that round, which depends on your draft slot and the snake order. In a 12-team league, slot 1 keeping a round-2 player gives up pick 24. Slot 12 gives up pick 13. Same round, eleven picks apart.
We price that pick from the players taken around it in the dated draft market shown with your result, smoothed so one oddly priced name never sets a whole round's cost, and held so a later pick never costs more than an earlier one. The verdict compares ranges rather than points. A firm keep or let go appears only when the spread across projection sources on your player clears the spread of draft position around it. Overlap is a close call, and a player carried by fewer than two sources is labelled limited and never gets a strong verdict.
Adam, who runs MustDraft: “My friends' league is the one I've been in the longest, and keeper decisions there carry a grudge for years. This is the math I run before I commit to a keeper, so I'm not arguing about it in the group chat in October.”
Read the rest
Read the rest
Draft ADP comes from Fantasy Football Calculator, one scoring cohort at a time. Each result says whether that cohort is current or a limited historical snapshot and shows its original date. It is one market's draft behaviour, not a multi-source consensus. Dynasty, rookie-only, auction and superflex keeper formats are not supported in this version. Once your keepers are locked, the printable cheat sheet ranks the rest of the pool for the slots you have left.
What the keeper value calculator is measuring
Keeper value is the gap between what a player is projected to add to your lineup and what the pick you burn on him would have added instead. Both are measured in points above a replacement-level starter at his position in your scoring, so the answer is one number with a sign on it. Positive means the keeper is cheaper than the market; negative means he is not.
How the calculator decides
The pick comes first. Keeping a player in round three from slot six of a 12-team snake draft costs pick 30, because the odd rounds run the slots in order. From slot one it costs pick 25, and round two would run backwards to pick 24.
Next the pick gets a price. Every player with both an average draft position in the displayed cohort and a MustDraft value goes on a curve. The players taken within six picks of yours are averaged, nearest weighted heaviest, and the curve is smoothed so a later pick never costs more than an earlier one. The range around that price is how much drafters disagree about where players land.
The verdict compares ranges, not points. Keep means the low end of the player's value clears the high end of the pick's cost. Let go means the high end of his value falls short of the low end of the cost. Overlap is a close call with a lean, read from the two central figures. A player projected by fewer than two sources is marked limited and gets a lean at most.
Two examples from the Sept. 6 snapshot
Both were run on Sept. 6, 2026 in a 12-team full-PPR league from draft slot six.
Chase Brown kept in round five. Round five from slot six is pick 54, and the players going around pick 54 are worth about 22 points above replacement, between 8 and 32 depending on the spread. Brown projects to 81 points above replacement, with a low of 78 and a high of 92 across the four sources that rate him. His worst case beats the pick's best case, so the verdict is keep, with 59 points of value gained.
Terry McLaurin kept in round three. Round three from slot six is pick 30, worth about 56 points in a range from 32 to 68. McLaurin projects to 29 points above replacement, with a range of 26 to 29. His best case does not reach the pick's worst case, so the verdict is let go, at 27 points of value lost. Davante Adams at the same price projects to 31 with a high of 33, and that 33 nudges past the pick's low of 32, so the ranges overlap and the calculator calls him close, leaning let go.
When the answer is let him go
The classic let-go is a player kept at a price set the year he broke out. If his projection has come back to earth and the round has not, the pick is worth more than he is. Then there is the quarterback in a one-QB league. Lamar Jackson carries one of the highest raw point projections on the board, yet in this format he is worth about 31 points above the replacement quarterback, and a round-three pick from slot six costs 56. That pick buys a starter at a position where the drop-off is steep, so the calculator says let go.
When the value gained sits within a few points of zero, the decision belongs to your roster and your league's rules rather than to a curve.