Every August the market settles into a draft order, and mostly it's right. The interesting part is the handful of places where the projections this site runs on refuse to go along. I pulled the current ADP from real drafts, full PPR, 12 teams, and set it against our season projections. These are the seven gaps I'd actually act on, and at the end, the one I don't quite believe.
A quick honesty note before the names: a projection arguing with a draft room is not automatically smarter than the draft room. The room knows things a model doesn't. But the model isn't scared of a boring name, and boring names win leagues in the middle rounds.
Wan'Dale Robinson, Titans
The market lets him go at pick 86, the eighth round. He caught 92 balls on 140 targets for 1,014 yards with the Giants last season. The projections put him at 197 points, inside the top ten at the position. Ninety-two catches is not a fluke shape, it's a role, and PPR pays for it. New team, sure. The catches came with him being the main read, and I'd spend an eighth to find out if that travels.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals
Pick 77. All 17 games last year, 78 catches for 1,006 and seven scores, and the projections like him for 205 this season. That projection makes him a top-six receiver. I'm not asking you to believe the ceiling. I'm pointing out that his floor just happened, for a full season, and it's being priced in round seven.
Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars
75 catches, 835 yards, and only three scores. Three touchdowns on that volume is bad luck more than bad play, and the projections quietly bump him to 170 points. At pick 89 you're paying for the three-touchdown version. You'll probably get more.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Pick 70 for a back the projections score at 201, which is top-ten running back territory. Last season: 603 rushing yards, seven scores on the ground, plus 32 catches. The market remembers the middling yardage. The model sees the touches and the catches. Sixth round is where I stop waiting.
Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
Twelve touchdowns. He ran for 730 yards on 184 carries, punched in 12, and the market's response is pick 136. The projections say 191 points. Twelve touchdowns usually comes down, and yes, I used the same regression logic to argue Meyers up three paragraphs ago, so what's different here? The price, and the volume. 184 carries is a real job, and jobs in round twelve are how benches win you weeks.
Jauan Jennings, Vikings
Nine touchdowns on 55 catches in San Francisco last year, 643 yards, and now a new team. Pick 147. The thirteenth round. The projections see 154 points, which is a starting receiver's season. In the thirteenth round you're normally drafting hope. This is a man who scored nine times last year.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Giants
And here's the one I trust least, so you get it last with the warning attached. The gap is the biggest on the whole board: pick 149, and a projection of 210 points, top-eight running back money. His actual season last year was 740 yards on 176 carries, 36 catches, and 160.8 points. A projection that adds fifty points to a season is making a claim about role that I can't verify from a stat table. But pick 149 is free. Paying nothing to find out is the whole case, and I'm telling you plainly it's thinner than the other six.
The projections will miss on at least one of these seven. The draft room will miss on more of theirs. That trade is the entire middle of every draft, and it's the one part of this hobby where the boring spreadsheet answer has been kind to me.