Where the forecasters disagree with the room

How to read the gap

The gap compares two rankings within a position: where the forecasters put a player, and where the draft market puts him. A +8 means the forecasters rank him eight places higher among running backs than the room is drafting him.

We compare within position on purpose. Ranking a quarterback's overall projection against his overall ADP would flag every quarterback at once, because quarterbacks always project high and get drafted late in one-quarterback leagues. That is an artefact of how scoring works, not an edge anybody can use.

A gap is a disagreement, not a prediction. It says two measurements point different ways. Sometimes the room knows something the projections have not caught up with — a training-camp report, a coaching change, a quiet injury. Check the news before you act on a number.

A dot instead of a gap means we have a market price but fewer than three independent forecasters — not enough to argue with the room. We found this the hard way: the biggest apparent bargains on the board were players only one forecaster had an opinion about, which is one opinion dressed up as a disagreement.

Sources counts independent forecasters, not websites. Several sites republish the same company's projections, and one opinion printed three times is still one opinion. Where fewer than three stand behind a player, we mark it.

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