MUSTDRAFT

DRAFT KIT

Where the forecasters disagree with the room

Projections from several independent forecasters, next to where players are actually being drafted. Anyone can show you both numbers. The useful part is the gap — the players the forecasters rate well above where the room is taking them, and the ones going earlier than the projections justify.

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How to read the gap

The gap compares two rankings within a position: where the forecasters put a player, and where the draft market puts him. A +8 means the forecasters rank him eight places higher among running backs than the room is drafting him.

We compare within position on purpose. Ranking a quarterback's overall projection against his overall ADP would flag every quarterback at once, because quarterbacks always project high and get drafted late in one-quarterback leagues. That is an artefact of how scoring works, not an edge anybody can use.

A gap is a disagreement, not a prediction. It says two measurements point different ways. Sometimes the room knows something the projections have not caught up with — a training-camp report, a coaching change, a quiet injury. Check the news before you act on a number.

A dot instead of a gap means we have a market price but fewer than three independent forecasters — not enough to argue with the room. We found this the hard way: the biggest apparent bargains on the board were players only one forecaster had an opinion about, which is one opinion dressed up as a disagreement.

Sources counts independent forecasters, not websites. Several sites republish the same company's projections, and one opinion printed three times is still one opinion. Where fewer than three stand behind a player, we mark it.

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