MUSTDRAFT

MANY SOURCES, ONE VIEW

Consensus

Projections combined from independent forecasters, and draft position from real drafts. Every row shows how many independent sources stand behind it and how far apart they are — because a number two people agree on is a different thing from one six people agree on, and you should be able to tell which you are looking at.

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How to read this

Sources counts independent forecasters, not feeds. Several websites republish the same company's projections — one forecaster syndicated three ways is still one opinion, and counting it three times would manufacture agreement that does not exist. We count the originator.

Source range is how far apart those sources are. It is a measure of disagreement between forecasters, not a calibrated prediction interval — we have not yet measured how often the real result lands inside it, so we do not describe it as if we had.

Under three sources we say so plainly. An average of two opinions is an average of two opinions.

ADP cohorts are never mixed. A PPR 12-team redraft and a superflex dynasty are different markets; averaging them would describe a league nobody plays in. Switching scoring switches the market you are looking at, and the sample size shown is that market's.

Full methodology.