The hardest part of a preseason ranking is deciding how much to believe July. A new star arrives, the lineup looks terrific on paper, and suddenly the problems that ended a team's season seem easy to fix.
Some of those problems will survive the summer. There is still only one ball. Somebody still has to defend the other team's best guard. And a name on a roster is no guarantee of 70 healthy games.
That is why our first three are fairly settled, even if the order is debatable. The next seven are much closer together. Philadelphia has the most tempting collection of names; Denver gets more trust from us because its best offensive partnership already knows how to work together.
These are our 2026–27 preseason power rankings, as of September 20. We are weighing last season's performance, the current roster, lineup fit and availability. This is our assessment of team strength, not a projected win-total table. Unconfirmed recoveries do not count as clean bills of health.
1. New York Knicks
New York beat San Antonio 4–1 in the Finals. That earns the Knicks the first chance to defend this spot.
The stronger argument is how their pieces fit. Brunson can create a shot when the first action fails; Towns makes a defense respect the center away from the basket. Anunoby and Bridges give New York options for the toughest perimeter assignments. We trust that balance more than a newly assembled group still negotiating its roles.
The immediate watch point is Brunson's recovery from July wrist surgery. Expected back is different from cleared. His camp progress matters more than any September debate about the bench.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City won 64 games; San Antonio won 62. That regular-season edge is enough for us to separate two very close teams here.
With Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren, the Thunder can build around a scorer who bends the defense, a second creator and a big who changes the geometry at both ends. There are several sensible ways to complete that lineup. That flexibility is why we still give OKC the slight edge over San Antonio.
The price of this summer was real: Dort, Joe and Wiggins departed. The remaining guards have to absorb those minutes without making the stars carry every difficult possession.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Putting the Spurs third is not a prediction that they have peaked. Of this top group, they offer the clearest reason to believe the same core could look substantially better by April.
Wembanyama makes that possible. The interesting coaching problem is how to arrange the guards around him. Fox can force the pace; Castle and Harper offer other ways into the paint. We would rather stagger some of those minutes than insist the most talented five must always play together.
Tobias Harris arrived in free agency. He gives the rotation another option, but our case for San Antonio rests on the young players finding cleaner spacing and quicker decisions together.
4. Denver Nuggets
Denver is our most arguable choice near the top. Minnesota eliminated the Nuggets in six games, and no amount of preseason optimism erases that.
We still prefer building an offense around Jokic and Murray to teaching a new star group how to share late-game possessions. Their partnership gives Denver a clear starting point every night. The burden falls on the rest of the lineup to keep opponents from winning the game at the other end.
DeMar DeRozan signed in September. His best use may be salvaging possessions when the first action breaks down. Asking that addition to solve Denver's defense would be asking the wrong question.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
Read the current roster out loud: Maxey, Brown, James, Embiid. It is easy to talk yourself into putting Philadelphia higher.
The appeal goes beyond recognition. Maxey can attack before a defense gets set, Brown can work against a tilted floor, and James can decide who should get the next touch. If Embiid can anchor the middle consistently, opponents have an unpleasant set of choices.
Fifth is our compromise between that possibility and the work still required. We have not treated Embiid as medically cleared for unrestricted opening-night minutes. Until the group establishes its availability and its closing lineup, the top four get more trust.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland reached the East finals, then lost four straight to New York. The challenge is specific: build an offense that has another answer when the opponent takes away the comfortable one.
Mitchell and Harden supply two ways to start a possession. Getting Mobley involved when a defense loads up on the guards would give Cleveland a useful third option. Simply asking the backcourt to manufacture tougher jumpers is a fragile plan for May.
Peyton Watson's arrival interests us because Cleveland needs playable combinations around that core. His fit matters more to this ranking than another impressive night from the established scorers.
7. Detroit Pistons
Detroit won 60 games last season. Seventh may look harsh until the current roster question comes into focus: Duren remained unsigned as of September 20.
We cannot rank the frontcourt as though that is already resolved. Cunningham gives Detroit the player we would trust to organize a good team, but the shape of the team around him still matters.
Isaiah Joe's addition offers a useful direction. His shooting could buy Cunningham an extra step before the second defender arrives. Settle the center situation and make those spacing choices work, and Detroit can move up quickly.
8. Houston Rockets
Durant, Sengun and Thompson give Houston three very different ways to create an advantage. Our preference would be to let each do what makes him difficult to guard: Durant finding a shooting window, Sengun drawing attention inside, Thompson attacking a defense before it organizes.
Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic joined this summer. We see more choices, but also a real job for the coaching staff: decide which combinations provide enough shooting without conceding the physical advantage elsewhere.
We have not built this ranking around a full-strength VanVleet return. Houston needs a workable opening rotation before treating any additional recovery as a bonus.
9. Boston Celtics
Boston's Brown-for-George trade changes the judgment. This is a different supporting cast around Tatum, not a familiar team we can rank from habit.
White and Pritchard give us reasons to expect coherent offense. George adds another option on the wing. The question is how often Boston can field its preferred group and whether that group has enough force when the game stops producing easy threes.
We are leaving room for the Celtics to prove us too cautious. For now, ninth reflects uncertainty about the new arrangement, not a belief that Tatum has stopped being capable of carrying a contender.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves added LaMelo Ball and moved Randle and Reid. That is a substantial change in how we expect them to play.
Ball moving the ball early, Edwards receiving it against a defense already scrambling: that is the appeal. Edwards should not have to create the first advantage, beat the help and finish the possession every time down.
There is a cost to rebuilding that way. Minnesota needs to replace what its departed bigs provided, and a Ball–Edwards backcourt still has to hold up when opponents choose whom to attack. The offensive idea earns this spot; the complete five-man units have to earn a higher one.
11. Miami Heat
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in Miami. That alone makes last season's version of the Heat a poor guide to this one.
Pairing him with Adebayo gives us plenty to imagine defensively. On offense, movement will matter: cuts, screening and quick decisions that make defenders choose between the two bigs. Parking both near the lane and hoping a guard creates something would waste the pairing.
Klay Thompson joined, too. The test is whether Miami can surround its frontcourt with enough reliable shooting without leaving targets at the other end. Giannis's late-season left-knee injury adds another reason for caution. A fresh official clearance was not established in our September 20 check, so his opening workload remains a question for camp.
12. Los Angeles Lakers
This is Doncic's team to organize, with Reaves alongside him and Kessler in the middle of the current roster.
The attractive version is easy to picture: a hard screen, a roll toward the rim, and a second ball-handler ready when the first action draws help. The harder part is surviving the possessions when the Lakers cannot control the matchup.
Kessler is a particularly important variable. He appears among the NBA's expected comeback players, which we are not treating as medical clearance. Twelfth leaves room for the roster to fit well without assuming its most important defensive piece is immediately ready for everything asked of him.
13. Toronto Raptors
Kawhi Leonard returned in a trade. That gives Toronto a much more convincing answer to the late-game question: who gets a useful shot when the first two options disappear?
Leonard handling those possessions could free Barnes to do more connecting work between the guards and the frontcourt. There is a path to a difficult team to score against without making every offensive trip a grind.
Our hesitation is continuity. A roster can have enough talent and still spend months learning where everyone should stand. Toronto gets thirteenth for the possibilities; a stable, effective rotation would justify more.
14. Orlando Magic
Orlando hired Sean Sweeney and brought back Nikola Vucevic. The larger task remains making Banchero, Wagner and Bane easier to play through together.
Too much isolation would undersell this group. Bane should be useful before the shot goes up, drawing defenders through screens and creating room for the next action. Vucevic offers another way to arrange the floor, with defensive trade-offs to manage.
We are also waiting for a clear camp picture on Wagner, whose calf injury interrupted the playoffs. The upside is there. We are ranking the uncertainty alongside it.
15. Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta takes the final spot in our top 15 because of the practical problem its roster can pose. Johnson can initiate, Daniels can take a demanding perimeter assignment, and Dort's arrival gives the Hawks another defender to deploy.
That should allow them to test different looks without rebuilding the entire lineup. It does not settle the offense. Against a defense that gets back, stays attached and makes Atlanta play late in the clock, somebody still has to produce a good shot.
That is the bar for moving up: make the half-court attack as difficult to solve as the perimeter defense could become.